Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels The Villans' Improbable Title Charge

It was eight weeks in the past that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard proposition to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

  • Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent might become the force he showed in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.

Jennifer Small
Jennifer Small

A UK-based tech journalist with over a decade of experience covering digital innovations and startup ecosystems across Europe.