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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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